Romney Wins N.H. Primary; Paul Takes Second Place

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Mitt Romney speaks to supporters at Southern New Hampshire University in Manchester, N.H., after winning the state's primary on Tuesday.

Win McNamee/Getty Images Mitt Romney speaks to supporters at Southern New Hampshire University in Manchester, N.H., after winning the state's primary on Tuesday.

It's just the first Republican primary. But a convincing win in New Hampshire should give former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney considerable momentum in his quest toward the GOP nomination.

With 95 percent of precincts reporting, Romney had more than 39 percent of the vote. Texas Rep. Ron Paul was solidly in second, with about 23 percent, while former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman had secured third place, with nearly 17 percent of the vote.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum were in a tight battle for fourth place, but each had less than 9.5 percent of the vote.

"If [Romney] wins by 15 percent at the end of the night, it's over," says Chip Felkel, a longtime GOP strategist in South Carolina. "With a significant victory tonight, you'll start to see reality setting in. What's the benefit of finishing second in New Hampshire if you have no chance here in South Carolina?"

Looking For A Boost

Neither Paul nor Huntsman is expected to gain much momentum from his showing heading into South Carolina, which holds its primary Jan. 21, says Jim Guth, a political scientist at Furman University in Greenville, S.C.

Paul may have the same ceiling of support in South Carolina that he has seen in Iowa and New Hampshire, Guth suggests. "Paul has his avid supporters but will have about the same percentage here he's had elsewhere," he says.

And Huntsman, who skipped Iowa and placed all his hopes on New Hampshire, will not gain enough momentum from a third-place showing there to overcome concerns that South Carolina conservatives have about him, Guth says.

"Huntsman is a little too far to the left for any group of South Carolina Republicans," he says.

A Strong Finish

In the past, New Hampshire Republicans have sometimes given their primary support to insurgent candidates. But it appears that a sizable share of late-deciding voters decided to back Romney.

"The campaign just worked like clockwork," says Dante Scala, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire. "Mitt Romney and his campaign never let this campaign get especially interesting. They really had this state buttoned down."

Attacks on Romney came too late in the race to make much difference, says Linda Fowler, a government professor at Dartmouth College. Instead, he was able to "stay above the fray," she says, while other candidates pummeled each other in hopes of becoming the "non-Mitt."

Enlarge Charles Dharapak/AP

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney appeared outside a polling station at Webster School in Manchester Tuesday as people across New Hampshire voted in the state's primary.

Charles Dharapak/AP Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney appeared outside a polling station at Webster School in Manchester Tuesday as people across New Hampshire voted in the state's primary.

"Romney's been very lucky in this contest that there hasn't been a non-Mitt," Fowler says. "There have been multiple non-Mitts."

The Caravan Heads South

Looking ahead, Romney's greatest concern has been that ardent conservatives would rally behind a single champion who would then stand as his main rival.

That hasn't happened yet. And results in New Hampshire suggest that it may not happen soon, says Charlie Arlinghaus, who directs a free-market think tank in Concord, N.H.

"Romney will get a big boost going into South Carolina," he says, "and the only way to stop him would be for the right to unite behind one of two candidates [Gingrich and Santorum] who did very poorly in New Hampshire."

Some observers were already wondering how Gingrich or Santorum could build on disappointing showings in New Hampshire.

Santorum at this point lacks the organizational strength or campaign cash to threaten in South Carolina, says Felkel.

Santorum Stalls

After finishing in a near tie with Romney in Iowa last week, Santorum has been unable to unite conservatives behind him. Instead, he will still have to battle for their support with Gingrich and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who has been campaigning in South Carolina this past week.

Santorum "may not have the support, beyond a disorganized group of social conservatives, to mount any kind of challenge," Felkel said. "And with Perry and Gingrich still in the race, he doesn't have the votes."

Listen to NPR's live coverage of the New Hampshire primary:

Conservatives say they'll still make a stand against Romney in South Carolina. But unless they unite behind a single candidate, it may be difficult for anyone to challenge him seriously there.

Romney Country

New Hampshire has long been considered favorable territory for Romney.

"He did really well with a lot of types of voters," says Dean Spiliotes, founder of the political blog NHPoliticalCapital.com. "You get a sense of the size and power of his campaign compared to the other organizations when you see it on the ground here."

Romney poured considerable money and effort into New Hampshire. He was sideswiped in recent days by a multimillion-dollar ad campaign created by a Gingrich-affiliated superPAC criticizing Romney for his tenure as head of private equity firm Bain Capital.

Those attacks failed to derail Romney in the state, but it's certain they will be revisited in South Carolina, Fowler says.

Exit polling of New Hampshire voters showed that 56 percent of them did not consider campaign advertising an important factor in deciding their votes. By contrast, just over half — 52 percent – said debates between the candidates were a very important factor in deciding their vote, while an additional 31 percent said they were somewhat important.

"Yes, there are some open questions about South Carolina, such as whether the Gingrich superPAC ads can eat away at Romney's lead," says John Sides, a political scientist at George Washington University. "But it seems hard to imagine that Romney can, technically, win Iowa and, certainly, win New Hampshire and somehow still lose the nomination."

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Romney's New Hampshire win will make it tough for his GOP opponents in South Carolina and elsewhere.

After wins in New Hampshire and Iowa, stopping Romney's march to the nomination has become harder.

Paul told a crowd of supporters that he was nibbling at the heels of front-runner Mitt Romney.

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South Korea Takes A Political Turn To The Left

When the current president of South Korea Lee Myung-bak took office four years ago, he turned a cold shoulder to engagement with North Korea. The conservative wing in South Korea opposed improving relations with Pyongyang. But that has proven to be an unpopular policy, and now Lee finds himself in the difficult position of appealing for closer ties in this unpredictable transition period in North Korea. Lee goes to Beijing Monday to seek Chinese backing for this policy shift.

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The president of South Korea is in Beijing for talks with Chinese leaders. At the top of their agenda is the political transition in North Korea. Ever since Kim Jong-il died in December, both China and South Korea have advocated open dialogue with the North.

But as NPR's Mike Shuster reports from Seoul, that's a reversal for the South Korean president and it could have an impact on the country's elections later this year.

MIKE SHUSTER, BYLINE: On the surface, it may all sound predictable. The conservative president of South Korea, Lee Myung-bak, urging dialogue with North Korea, known formally as the DPRK, in a speech last week.

PRESIDENT LEE MYUNG-BAK: (Through Translator) If the DPRK comes to the table with sincerity, we can together open up a new era on the Korean Peninsula. We have to solve mutual trust issues through dialogue and take the road of mutual benefits and common prosperity.

SHUSTER: But buried in these quite ordinary-sounding words is a sharp shift in South Korean policy. When Lee Myung-bak became president four years ago, he turned away from engagement with North Korea, which had been Seoul's goal for nearly a decade, says Paik Nak-chung, professor emeritus at Seoul National University.

PROFESSOR PAIK NAK-CHUNG: He discontinued practically all the North-South exchanges. That amounts to a radical reversal of the previous policy. That process had started already with his inauguration in 2008.

SHUSTER: Behind President Lee's cold shoulder to Pyongyang was the belief that, without South Korean support, especially without South Korean aid and investment, the North Korean regime would collapse. The conservatives in South Korea were convinced of that, says Park In-kyu, editor of the liberal website, PRESSian.

PARK IN-KYU: They hate North Korean regime and they hope - they want collapse of North Korean regime.

SHUSTER: But the North Korean regime did not collapse, despite constant food shortages and isolation from most of the world. At the same time, the conservative approach never became popular in South Korea and, says Professor Paik, it has put the conservatives at a disadvantage going into an election year.

NAK-CHUNG: I think it has been definitely counterproductive. These days, I think, President Lee and his advisors are showing some signs of catching on.

SHUSTER: It's not as if North Korea is especially popular in South Korea. It's not. The frost turned to ice in 2010 when North Korea sunk a South Korean warship in March of that year, killing more than 40. Then, in November, unleashed an artillery barrage on an isolated island, leaving several more dead.

President Lee demanded an apology from North Korea and cut off nearly all of South Korea's remaining financial interactions with the North. The apology never came, but says Daniel Pinkston, the chief analyst in Seoul with the International Crisis Group, many in South Korea blame the tension on President Lee's aversion to engagement with North Korea.

DANIEL PINKSTON: South Korean society is very divided and some people blame the provocations of the past and the tension in inter-Korean relations on the conservative hawkish policies of the Myung-bak government. Now, whether you think that's true or not does not matter, but if the electorate feels that way, then it might shift how they vote.

SHUSTER: That's precisely what opinion polls are showing in South Korea, a move toward the left as elections for South Korea's legislative assembly in April approach. Couple that with widespread dissatisfaction with the lead government's record on the economy and there's a real chance, Professor Paik says, for the left to return to power.

NAK-CHUNG: The liberals have a very good chance of taking control of the National Assembly. If they win the Assembly elections, their chances of winning in the presidential election will improve.

SHUSTER: President Lee cannot run for reelection. The South Korean constitution limits presidents to a single five-year term, but because conservative prospects don't look good, it seems obvious why, in the aftermath of Kim Jong-Il's death, Lee is suddenly talking about dialog and urging the Chinese leaders to protect the status quo in North Korea.

Mike Shuster, NPR News, Seoul.

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Gingrich Takes On Romney In N.H.

Newt Gingrich may have placed fourth in Iowa, but he has come out swinging in New Hampshire. Thursday, he took on Mitt Romney, had even harsher words for President Obama — and toned it down a bit on Rick Santorum.

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Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich campaigned in northern New Hampshire today. Under a light snow, the former House speaker stopped in a number of picturesque towns. His message - that he is the only Republican who can beat President Obama. Gingrich called former Governor Mitt Romney a Massachusetts moderate, but saved his harshest rhetoric for the president.

NPR's Brian Naylor reports from Littleton, New Hampshire.

BRIAN NAYLOR, BYLINE: Former Speaker Gingrich's first stop was a former railroad station turned senior center in Plymouth. As an audience of a few dozen townspeople listened politely, and for the most part silently, Gingrich blasted President Obama.

Yesterday, the president named Richard Cordray to the newly formed Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, as well as appointing three members to the National Labor Relations Board. They were recess appointments, though Congress technically isn't in recess.

The former speaker called the move a politically motivated violation of the balance of powers.

NEWT GINGRICH: This president has proven a total willingness to violate the law and to impose an imperial presidency in trying to reshape the country. And he's done it for a clear reason. He's paying off his union allies. I mean, it has nothing to do with good government and everything to do with trying to buy his re-election.

NAYLOR: Taking on Mr. Obama is a no-risk move for Gingrich. But he continued his criticism of the man who polls show with a commanding lead among New Hampshire primary voters, Mitt Romney. He said Romney governed Massachusetts as a moderate; appointing liberal judges, and pushing the statewide health insurance plan known as RomneyCare. By contrast, Gingrich referred to himself as a Reagan conservative.

GINGRICH: There's a very big difference in our two sets of values. I don't believe a Massachusetts moderate is in a very good position to debate Barack Obama. And I think it would be very hard for him to win the general election, because I think it just blurs everything.

NAYLOR: Gingrich said he was not engaging in negative campaigning, but was simply contrasting his and Romney's records. But his campaign also introduced a new TV ad to run in the state, in which Gingrich calls Romney's economic plan quote, "virtually identical to Obama's failed policy," adding, quote, "timid won't create jobs."

Gingrich also was dismissive, if a bit gentler, on former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who finished just eight votes behind Romney in Tuesday's Iowa caucuses.

GINGRICH: If you think of us as partners, he would clearly - in historical experience - have been the junior partner. And he's not a bad person. I want to be clear about this.

NAYLOR: After listening to his speech, Littleton resident Marilyn Ryback says she supports Gingrich but is realistic about his prospects here.

MARILYN RYBACK: I don't give him much hope in New Hampshire, unfortunately. But it doesn't mean I don't think he'll win eventually. But New Hampshire is kind of hard because of Mitt Romney and, you know, being his home town and everything.

NAYLOR: John Patton, who has a software company in Hanover, says he doesn't go along with the prevailing sentiment that Romney is more electable.

JOHN PATTON: I do not agree. In fact, I think Romney will have a tough time contrasting himself with Obama. He seems like Obama-light. So I don't - although I will vote for him if he's the nominee.

NAYLOR: Gingrich, who finished fourth in Iowa, is keeping expectations about his chances in New Hampshire low, calling this one of Romney's three best states. He predicted, though, Romney's support will melt rapidly when the campaign heads south later this month, into states Gingrich expects to be his strongest.

Brian Naylor, NPR News, Littleton, New Hampshire.

Copyright © 2012 National Public Radio®. All rights reserved. No quotes from the materials contained herein may be used in any media without attribution to National Public Radio. This transcript is provided for personal, noncommercial use only, pursuant to our Terms of Use. Any other use requires NPR's prior permission. Visit our permissions page for further information.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by a contractor for NPR, and accuracy and availability may vary. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Please be aware that the authoritative record of NPR's programming is the audio.

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