Picture A Struggle: LSU And Alabama's Defenses Seen Deciding BCS Title

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Not Giving An Inch: You can expect to see lots of close contact in Monday's BCS national title game. Here, Eric Reid of the LSU Tigers defends against Michael Williams of the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images Not Giving An Inch: You can expect to see lots of close contact in Monday's BCS national title game. Here, Eric Reid of the LSU Tigers defends against Michael Williams of the Alabama Crimson Tide.

The consensus among college football's fans and analysts seems to be that tonight's BCS championship game between No. 2 Alabama and No. 1 LSU will be a defensive struggle, similar to the touchdown-free game the two teams played on Nov. 5, when LSU won in overtime, 9-6.

"These are the two top defenses in the country," NPR's Tom Goldman told David Greene on today's Morning Edition. "Alabama allows under 9 points a game; LSU is right behind, allowing only 10.5 points a game."

Goldman sympathizes with anyone for whom a replay of that November game sounds boring, saying, "if you like scoring, like most people do, it was a downer."

The kickoff for tonight's game is set for 8:30 p.m. ET; it is being televised by ESPN.

And as Tom notes, LSU head coach Les Miles has promised the title game won't resemble the high-scoring track meets that have marked the 2011 bowl season. Instead, Miles says, fans should expect to see "big-boy football" — in which, we presume, two balanced teams conduct trench warfare on the line of scrimmage, and no receivers are unaccounted for.

So, you'll see two elite defenses tonight, each with some names you'll likely hear called early in the NFL draft (you'll watch all of that, right?). But that doesn't mean the two squads are the same.

The Big Three For Alabama

Alabama is committed to stopping the run — but with a three-man front. And they do it with size. Consider that when he went to the NFL, former Alabama nosetackle Terrence Cody found that he had to lose weight, from the 370 pounds-and-up that he used to anchor the Crimson Tide's run defense down to a more manageable 335 pounds (?!).

This year, Alabama's defensive line is anchored by three players — Damon Square, Josh Chapman, and Jesse Williams — who weigh a combined 914 pounds. But as ESPN sports science analyst John Brenkus says, the three will give up a weight advantage to LSU's offensive line, which averages 315 pounds per man.

But Brenkus says that Messrs. Square, Chapman and Williams have a good shot at controlling their opponents, because weight isn't the players' only strength — they also deploy their weight with low centers of gravity. On average, Alabama's defensive linemen are two inches shorter than their opponents from LSU. And that gives them a better chance to use leverage to control the line.

And while LSU's secondary gets many accolades — after all, it does include Heisman runner-up Tyrann Mathieu — Alabama held LSU to 91 passing yards on Nov. 5, while Crimson Tide quarterback AJ McCarron threw for 199.

 

LSU's Secondary: On Par With The NFL?

For LSU, the secondary has been a real strength, and a weapon.

Brenkus praises Morris Claiborne, Brandon Taylor, Eric Reid and Tyrann Mathieu for being both exceptionally fast — each of the four athletes has "reportedly clocked faster 40s than the average times for cornerbacks and safeties in the NFL," he says — and for being incredibly agile.

"Analysis reveals that all four starters are able to change directions in only two-thirds of a second," Brenkus says, "as quickly as the [New England] Patriots' first-round draft pick, and Pro Bowler, Devin McCourty."

Those two statistics, taken together, mean that the Tigers' secondary can reliably cover a huge amount of ground — essentially a halo of 13-15 yards in any direction around them, Brenkus says. He estimates that within two seconds of the ball being snapped, "assuming their coverage doesn't overlap, they can theoretically cover about 2300 square yards — almost 45 percent of the entire field.

That kind of speed allows LSU to focus on the line of scrimmage, playing a 4-3 scheme that sics defensive ends Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo on opposing quarterbacks.

Special Teams: When Defenses Cancel Each Other Out

With these top-flight defenses threatening to make it tough for either team to build a lead, the kicking game could decide the national title, just as it decided LSU and Alabama's earlier game.

In that game, LSU was three for three on field goal tries, while Alabama missed three out of the six it attempted, along with having a 49-yard attempt blocked.

And while LSU's punter, Brad Wing, was busy in the November game, coming on for six kicks, he put four of those punts inside Alabama's 20 yard-line; his long of the day went for 73 yards. For Alabama, Cody Mandell only punted twice — and both of his kicks also landed inside the 20.

Much was said about Alabama's inability to hit field goals in that game. But none of the team's misses, by kickers Cade Foster and Jeremy Shelley, were from less than 44 yards out. And Foster tells The Birmingham Times that he felt "pure joy" when he learned he'd have another chance to beat LSU.

Things That Have Changed Since November

There's a limit to how useful it is to look at the Nov. 5 matchup as a predictor for Monday's game. Here are some things that have changed:

Jordan Jefferson is now LSU's entrenched starter, replacing Jarrett Lee. Jefferson can throw, but he also allows the Tigers to run the option — an attack Georgia Southern used to rack up 302 rushing yards against Alabama.Two players who were barely involved in the Nov. 5 game — Alabama tight end Brad Smelley and LSU running back Kenny Hilliard — emerged as scoring threats late in the season.The best way to defuse a powerful offense is to keep them off the field — and that means LSU might see far more of Alabama's Heisman finalist, Trent Richardson, in this game. The running back had 89 rushing yards, and 80 more in the passing game. He's capable of much more.

Of course, there's also a good chance that the two teams will find a way to score more points in the BCS title game than they did in November. And their defenses might even get in on the act and add some points of their own, if they can induce any juicy turnovers.

Things That Might Change In 2012

Whatever happens Monday night, there are signs the BCS might once again shake up its method of determining a national champion. This year, the system has come under fire for setting an LSU-Alabama rematch instead of giving No. 3 Oklahoma State, champs of the Big 12, a shot at unseating LSU.

That led Frank Deford to opine on NPR last week:

"As there is a joke about the Holy Roman Empire — that it was neither holy, nor Roman, nor an empire — so can the same be said about the Bowl Championship Series.

It's not a bowl; it's a game played in the Superdome.

It's not a championship, just an exhibition, because the teams have been appointed to show up without earning the right to challenge for the title.

And it's not a series, because no team plays more than once."

As the AP reports, BCS officials are gathering later this week to discuss ways to improve the system. One idea that will likely come up again is the "plus one" model, in which the top four BCS-ranked teams would play what's essentially a seeded mini-tournament.

At the cost of adding one more game to college football's post-season schedule, the BCS would then have a semifinal round (played in the existing BCS bowls). And then the winners would play each other for the national title, one week later.

At least one fan of that proposed system is someone who's benefiting from its absence this year: Alabama head coach Nick Saban.

"I just feel that only having two teams sort of takes a lot of teams out of it," the AP quotes Saban as saying during media day in New Orleans.

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No. 2 Alabama Beats No. 1 LSU 21-0 For BCS Title

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Trent Richardson of the Alabama Crimson Tide breaks a tackle from Barkevious Mingo of the Louisiana State University Tigers on his way to a 34-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter during the 2012 Allstate BCS National Championship Game at Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Monday in New Orleans.

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images Trent Richardson of the Alabama Crimson Tide breaks a tackle from Barkevious Mingo of the Louisiana State University Tigers on his way to a 34-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter during the 2012 Allstate BCS National Championship Game at Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Monday in New Orleans.

The Alabama defense took no chances in the rematch.

When Jordan Jefferson dropped back to pass, he was swept under by a tide of crimson. When the LSU quarterback took off running, he must've felt like Alabama had a few extra players on the field.

Courtney Upshaw, Dont'a Hightower and Co. sure made it seem that way.

With a smothering display of old-school football, the No. 2 Crimson Tide blew out the top-ranked Tigers 21-0 in the BCS championship game Monday night.

Coach Nick Saban's Tide also moved into the top spot in the final Associated Press poll for the eighth time, tying Notre Dame for the most of any team in college football.

In this postseason of high-scoring shootouts, one of the greatest defenses in college football history carried another title back to Tuscaloosa.

"They are unbelievable," said Alabama offensive lineman Barrett Jones, relieved that he only has to go against them in practice. "That defense is as good as any defense I've ever seen. They rush the passer, they have awesome linebackers and they're great in coverage. They really don't have any weaknesses. They have to be as good as any defense ever.

He'll get no argument from Jefferson and the Tigers (13-1), who had beaten Alabama 9-6 in overtime on Nov. 5 — a game the Tide was still smarting about when it got to the Big Easy.

LSU didn't cross midfield until there were 8 minutes left in the game. The Tigers finished with just 92 yards and five first downs.

"This defense is built on stopping them, and that's what we did," said Upshaw, the game's defensive MVP. "We wanted to come out and show the world we beat ourselves the first game. We wanted to come out and dominate from start to finish, and that's what we did."

The Crimson Tide (12-1) kept kicking field goals and finally made a long-overdue trip to the end zone late in the game — the only touchdown scored by either team in their two meetings.

Jeremy Shelley tied a bowl record with five field goals and the defense did the rest, posting the first shutout in the 14-year history of the BCS. It was the Tide's second BCS title in three years.

"That was the message before the game: to finish," Saban said. "In fact, it was how bad do you want to finish? We certainly didn't play a perfect game, we got a field goal blocked, we couldn't find the end zone for a long time, but we just kept playing."

While only crimson-clad fans will remember this as a thing of beauty, Alabama erased any doubts that it deserved to be in the title game over another one-loss team like Oklahoma State or Stanford.

Then again, one of those teams might have actually scored a touchdown before Alabama finally did, with 4:36 left in the game, long after fans may have flipped to something more entertaining than a one-sided kicking contest. Amazingly, these Southeastern Conference powerhouses played twice in a span of about two months, and never got one of those things that's worth six points — you know, touchdowns — until Trent Richardson broke off a 34-yard run with 4:36 remaining.

It only took 115 minutes, 34 seconds, plus the overtime period in their first meeting.

LSU had beaten eight ranked teams — including Alabama in early November — to establish itself as the clear No. 1 going into the bowls, but the Tigers didn't come close to matching their performance from the Game of the Century in Tuscaloosa. Instead of putting up a "Godfather II," this one was more akin to "Speed 2."

The Tigers were outgained 384-92 in total yards. On that one and only trip into Alabama territory, they quickly went back, back, back — the last gasp ending appropriately with the beleaguered Jefferson getting the ball knocked from his hand before he could even get off a fourth-and-forever pass.

"We didn't do a lot different," Saban said. "We did some things on offense formationally. Our offensive team did a great job. Defensively, we just played well, played the box. Our special teams did a great job."

He has won a pair of BCS titles at Alabama, plus another at LSU in 2003. He's the first coach to win three BCS titles, denying LSU's Les Miles his second championship. The Tigers will have to settle for the SEC title, but that's not likely to ease the sting of this ugly performance.

A couple of months ago at Bryant-Denny Stadium, Alabama held the top spot in the first matchup between the 1-2 teams. The Tigers won with three field goals, while the Crimson Tide missed four of its six attempts.

OK, so maybe that wasn't a classic. But it was downright thrilling compared to the rematch, the first time in the BCS that teams played for the title after meeting during the regular season.

Credit the Alabama defense for that.

LSU simply couldn't do anything — running or passing. Kenny Hilliard led the Tigers with 16 yards rushing, while Jefferson was 11 of 17 passing for 53 yards, usually hurrying away passes before he was sent tumbling to the Superdome turf. He was sacked four times and threw a mystifying interception when he attempted to flip away a desperation pass, only to have it picked off because his intended receiver had already turned upfield looking to block.

"I think people have stopped appreciating defense," Jones said. "What an awesome game defensively. Two really good defenses, and we were fortunate enough to put some points on the board."

A.J. McCarron was the offensive MVP, completing 23 of 34 passes for 234 yards. Richardson added 96 yards on 20 carries. But an even bigger cheer went up when the defensive award was presented to Upshaw, who had seven tackles, including a sack, and spent a good part of his night in the LSU backfield.

With the way his defense was playing, McCarron simply had to avoid mistakes and guide the offense into field-goal range. He did that to perfection.

"When you have a great offensive line like I have, and great players around you, it makes your job easy as quarterback," McCarron said. "I've got to give all the credit to them. I wish I could have the whole team up here."

Miles said the rematch would be another display of "big-boy" football, and that was apparent on the opening kickoff and first play from scrimmage. Morris Claiborne was clotheslined by Alabama's Trey Depriest on the return, then Michael Ford was sent flying by Damion Square and Jesse Williams on a 2-yard run that immediately set the tone.

But this time, the special teams went Alabama's way. Marquis Maze dealt the first big blow for the Crimson Tide with a 49-yard punt return midway through the opening quarter, and he might've gone all the way to the end zone if not for a leg injury that forced him to pull up. Punter Brad Wing was the only defender left to beat, but Maze had to hobble out of bounds.

McCarron completed a 16-yard pass to Darius Hanks at the LSU 10, setting up Shelley's 23-yard chip shot field goal. If nothing else, Alabama had accomplished one of its goals coming into the game: to at least get close enough to the end zone for its embattled kickers to have a better chance of converting.

In the first meeting, Shelley and Cade Foster combined to miss four field goals — all of them from at least 44 yards.

In the do-over, Foster stayed on the sideline while Shelley also connected from 34, 41, 35 and 44 yards. Not that it was a flawless kicking performance. Shelley had another kick blocked and pushed another wide right, attempting a bowl-record seven field goals overall.

In addition, he missed the extra point after Richardson's touchdown.

It didn't matter.

"The whole defense is the MVP," Upshaw said. "The whole defense. Roll Tide, baby. Roll Tide!"

LSU's best weapon was Wing, who averaged nearly 46 yards on nine punts. That was about the only highlight for the purple and gold, which failed to match its BCS title game victories in 2003 and 2007, the last two times the game was played in New Orleans, about 80 miles from its Baton Rouge campus.

"We couldn't sustain any consistency," Miles said. "The calls became much more difficult."

Miles never considered switching to backup quarterback Jarrett Lee, who started the first eight games for the Tigers — four of those while Jefferson was serving a suspension for his involvement in a bar fight.

"We felt like with Jefferson's feet and the ability to get out of the rush, that it was fair that he finished," Miles said. "He certainly had a tremendously strong year in any regard. Boy, we wanted to finish this one. It's hard to finish a season that was so successful this way."

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The Crimson Tide won the game 21-0 — the first shutout in the Bowl Championship Series.

It's the first shutout in BCS title game history.

The two teams played a touchdown-free game on Nov. 5, when LSU won in overtime, 9-6.

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